Monday, July 20, 2020

Its Over!

The Covid19 epidemic is over, but people are so scared, because of the exponentially exaggerated projections, that they now refuse to listen to reason, as explained in this video

A big problem is that the crazy-news media concentrate on the scary projections and ignore the real statistics.  Let's look at the USA CDC Covid19 death count report Table 1 - literally the cold hard facts

After the very vulnerable people sadly passed away, the illness continues to burn through the healthy population, the majority of whom will not get seriously sick, the death rate keeps going down and is now near zero.

Every week, you can go back and look at a new version of this graph and every week you will see that it doesn't go back up.  It is a very boring graph and in this case, boring is good.

On 11/7/2020, 132 people died in the USA of Covid19 - if it flat lines, then over the next 6 months, another 23,000 souls will pass away, but the curve is still declining and medical treatments for the small percentage of seriously sick people are improving, so that would be an upper limit.

The death rate is independent of the infection rates, so loved by the crazy-news papers.  There are no peaks in the table when the infection rates climb, NY stopped their lock down, political rallies broke the lockdowns, etc, meaning that all the preventative measures have had little to no effect on the death rate.

Sweden with no lockdown, had lower slopes than the UK with lockdown.

This disease is extremely contageous, it is in the air, it is carried by pets and other mammals and the expensive lockdowns were not effective.  It may have prevented some healthy people from being inconvenienced, but it did not prevent old and sick people from getting sick with Covid19 and dieing of it.  Deaths are only prevented by medical intervention and treatments in hospital.  

The lockdowns clearly did not 'flatten the curves' - the disease carried on spreading - Sweden's curve is 'flatter' than either Belgium or the UK.

Graphs for every country in Europe look the same.  The graphs go up steeply and come down slowly, just a few weeks earlier in time, compared to the US.  

In Europe, Covid19 is fish paper - yesterday's news.

North America is not far behind Europe and indeed,  for the past 3 weeks, deaths from all causes in the USA was also below the expected.  See Table 1, Percent of expected deaths:

These graphs are updated once a week by the CDC.  One cannot argue with this data since it is not predictions, it is real stone cold deaths.  Normally, deaths are dispiriting, but in this case, the contrast is so stark with the wild exponential predictions, that it is actually encouraging and unlike James Bond, people only die once.

Of course, once the death rate bounces back up to normal, the crazy papers will tell of the second coming of Covid, while the near zero bumps in the curves are really because all the vulnerable people died a few weeks/months earlier than they would have without Covid19.

Lately, there is news in Europe about a second wave of infections.  We shall see what happens in two weeks with the death counts, after the Grim Reaper walked by.  My hope is that there won't be many, since this wave is amongst younger people.

More information on real numbers vs scary exponential projections, done by people in the insurance industry, who wanted to know what would happen to their businesses if people really started dieing in droves as the projections indicated:

"The death rate is inversely proportional to the amount a country spends on health care."  

This conundrum is due to the disease disproportionately affecting older people (80%).  Poor countries don't have old people - they die young, since they don't invest in health care.  There is also some new research coming in on Covid19 vs age and immune system T-cells (old people have fewer), which may explain the problem and lead to new treatments.

Here is a graph that Americans are not allowed to see.  If you are American, please close your eyes and don't peep:

According to the BBC, more than 50% of Mumbai slum dwellers already had Covid19 and the death rate is about 1 in 2000, or 0.05%, which is so close to zero that one cannot graph it - you will only see the x and y axes with nothing in the graph:

Send the children back to school, they will be fine.  The older teachers may have a worry, but not the children.

Why is Boris Johnson wearing a mask?  He already had the illness.  Apparently he forgot.

It's over folks.  Light a candle for the lost souls and move on.  


Further reading: 
Calling Bullshit
The Art of Scepticism in a Data-Driven World
Jevin D. West (author), Carl T. Bergstrom (author)

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